Leading indicators...

The recent recovery in stock markets across the World suggests that investors are starting to think that we can now start to look forward to some kind of economic recovery later this year. With this in mind all eyes will be on the Leading Indicators series which is published by the Conference Board in the US. The aim of this particular release is to predict the state of economic conditions in the near future. It has an excellent track record going all the way back to the 1950s. When this data is published you actually get three different economic series:

1) The Conference Board Leading Economic Index - this is the most important as it tries to predict the future.

2) The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index - this is the next in line as it says what is going on now.

3) The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index - this is the least important as it tells us where we have been in the past.

For investors all eyes should be on the first series - leading indicators.

The data series is based on some of the following economic/financial information:

•Average workweek in manufacturing.
•Average weekly initial U/E claims.
•Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods
•The S and P 500 stock market index.
•M2 money supply data.
•Housing permits.
•Consumer expectations.
•Manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods.
•Spread between 10-year Treasury bonds and Fed Funds Rate etc.

The last set of data showed a contiuned decline with the Conference Board Leading Economic Index decreasing by 0.3 percent in March. The next set of data for April will come out later this month.

You can access it via this link:
http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/pressRelease_output.cfm?cid=1